Increasing energy prices – especially for oil and gas – and recent geopolitical conflicts have reminded us of the essential role affordable energy plays in economic growth and human development and of the vulnerability of the global energy system to supply disruptions. To secure energy supplies is once again at the top of the international policy agenda. Yet the current pattern of energy supply carries the threat of severe and irreversible environmental damage – including changes in global climate. Reconciling the goals of energy security and environmental protection requires strong and coordinated government action and public support. As a consequence, the decoupling of energy use and economic growth, a diversification of energy supply, and the mitigation of climate change causing emissions are more urgent than ever. 

The major share of primary energy demand today comes from fossil fuels, oil, gas, and coal. The main suppliers of oil are the OPEC region, Russia, and the USA. If the oil demand continues to grow as fast as in the past decades, the demand for oil will be higher than supply 15 years from now (depletion point). Although the oil price would also rise with increasing demand and other oil reserves such as oil shale or tar sands would be financially attractive to exploit further, oil still remains the scarcest fossil resource on earth, followed by gas. The world’s largest gas reserves are in Russia, followed by Qatar and Iran. The supply of coal is more widely spread in many countries of the world, and the coal reserves will last for over 200 years. [Download Journal]

In the energy industry, biomass refers to biological material which can be used as fuel or for industrial production. Biomass includes plant matter grown for use as biofuel, as well as plant or animal matter used for production of fibres, chemicals or heat. This new book presents current research in the study of biomass crops, including the conversion of wood into liquid fuels; alfalfa biomass production; gasification of biomass in aqueous media and biofuel production potential.

1. Conversion of Wood into Liquid Fuels: A Review of the Science and Technology Behind the Fast Pyrolysis of Biomass. G. San Miguel, J. Makibar and A. R. Fernandez-Akarregi

2. Biomass Crops for Fermentative Biofuel Production. John A. Panagiotopoulos, Robert R. Bakker, Paulien Harmsen, Krzysztof Urbaniec, Andrzej Zarzycki, Ju Wu and Vito Sardo. [Download Book]

[CARLOS PASCUAL and EVIE ZAMBETAKIS] Since the industrial revolution, the geopolitics of energy—who supplies and reliably secures energy at affordable prices—has been a driver of global prosperity and security. Over the coming decades, energy politics will determine the survival of life as we know it on our planet. 

The political aspect of energy, linked to the sources of supply and demand, comes to public attention at moments of crisis. When unstable oil markets drive up prices and volatility hinders long-run investment planning, politicians hear their constituents protest. But energy politics have become yet more complex. Transportation systems, particularly in the United States, are largely reliant on oil, so disruption of oil markets can bring a great power to a standstill. Access to energy is critical to sustaining growth in China and India—to employ the hundreds of millions who remain poor and to keep pace with burgeoning populations. Failure to deliver on the hope of greater prosperity could unravel even authoritarian regimes—and even more so democratic ones—as populations become more educated and demanding.

Two of the major global energy consumers, the United States and the European Union, have similar needs but different practical perspectives on energy imports. The United States is overly dependent and focused on oil, with consequent special attention to the Middle East. The EU is highly reliant on imported gas, making Russia an important supplier and factor in the EU’s energy policies and raising tensions particularly between Germany and the central European states. Before the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, rising demand for oil and gas imports and limited capacity to expand short-term supply drove up prices, supplier wealth, and producer leverage, allowing producers such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran to punch above their weight in regional and international politics. With the current slowdown in global demand from at least the traditional demand centers in Europe and the United States, lower oil prices have rattled the economies and politics of producer states that have come to depend on large export revenues to maintain stability at home and support muscular foreign policies abroad. That is especially poignant in countries like Iran and Venezuela, which highly subsidize social programs and fuel at the expense of economic growth and diversification. 

Traditional geopolitical considerations have become even more complex with global climate change. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has documented that the use of fossil fuels is the principal cause of increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, which in turn are driving up the mean temperature of the planet. A changing global climate is already resulting in significant loss of glaciers and shrinkage of polar icepacks. It will lead to severe flooding in some places and drought in others, which will devastate many countries’ food production, encourage the spread of various illnesses, and cause hundreds of thousands of deaths each year, particularly for those living in the developing world. Nearly 2 billion people were affected by weather-related disasters in the 1990s, and that rate may double in the next decade. At the same time as countries are competing for energy, they must radically change how they use and conserve energy. The politics of the debate over scrambling to secure hydrocarbon resources versus reducing consumption through efficiency and use of alternatives—particularly how to pay for the cost and dissemination of new technologies and how to compensate those who contribute little to climate change but will experience its most severe effects—is emerging as a new focal point in the geopolitics of energy. 

Ironically, volatile oil and gas prices and the actions that must be taken to address climate change—namely, pricing carbon at a cost that will drive investment, new technology, and conservation to control its emission—will drive another existential threat: the risk of nuclear proliferation. Higher energy and carbon prices will make nuclear power a more attractive option in national energy strategies, and the more reliant that countries become on nuclear power, the more they will want to control the fuel cycle. The risk of breakout from civilian uses of nuclear power to weaponization will increase dramatically, as will the risk of materials and technology getting into the hands of terrorists. 

Confronting these challenges requires an understanding of the fragility of international oil and gas markets and also of the nexus among energy security, climate change, and nuclear energy and proliferation. This chapter addresses that interconnection and the kinds of measures that will be needed to ensure a politically, economically, and environmentally sustainable energy strategy. [DOWNLOAD COMPLETE]

CARLOS PASCUAL and JONATHAN ELKIND

[BOOKS] Energy is at the heart of economic development in every country. It moves us and powers our factories, government and office buildings, schools, and hospitals. It heats homes and keeps perishable foods cold. Its centrality explains its complexity. Energy is the source of wealth and competition, the basis of political controversy and technological innovation, and the core of an epochal challenge to our global environment. This book presents a collection of chapters on the theme of energy security. In this volume, the contributors seek to promote thoughtful analysis and healthy debate about different aspects of energy security through examination of the major factors currently driving energy policy decisions, including the actions of other nations, a changing climate, and the quest for energy independence. There is no unanimity here no orthodoxy. Instead there are insights into different aspects of energy security and its relationship to the geopolitical, national, and environmental questions of our day. 

The United States has been debating energy security since the oil crises of the 1970s, and indeed many of the solutions proposed during the most recent spike of oil prices could be mistaken for the solutions touted from previous decades—such as support for increasing the domestic supply of oil. But we are no longer in the 1970s; the world stage and the global energy landscape have both changed dramatically. Projected growth in the demand for energy from non-OECD countries such as China and India will exceed demand growth in the industrialized world. Economies are more integrally linked through globalization; thus we are more dependent on global trading partners for continued development. And the human race now confronts one of its greatest challenges—halting the threat of global climate change that results largely from the burning of fossil fuels.

Defining “Energy Security”

Running throughout this volume is the question of the proper definition of the term “energy security.” This is no simple issue. The notion of energy security hinges on perspective: the temporal choices that we make and 

the way that we balance economic, national security, and environmental concerns. If energy security has ceased to be defined by the simple terms of affordability and dependable supply, what then do we mean when we refer to “energy security” today?

For some leaders and writers in the United States, energy security has come to be synonymous with “energy independence”; the two terms are now being used almost interchangeably in the political discourse. This view finds little support in the chapters that follow. On the contrary, our contributors question the wisdom—and even the practicability—of this goal. They subscribe to the view that our energy security will, for several coming decades, depend profoundly on petroleum and thus on secure international trade in energy.

One of the central points implied in the chapters that follow is the question of how we manage the transition from today’s energy economy to the new, low-carbon energy economy that must be our future. In the short term, that implies the need to sustain, and indeed expand, existing relationships with our chief energy suppliers. At the same time, we must dramatically accelerate progress toward the technologies and trading patterns that we will need to meet our long-term goals of a significantly decarbonized energy market by 2050 or thereabouts. Several of the chapters present ideas for how best to execute this necessarily bifurcated strategy. The chapters are divided by subject into three parts, detailed below: “Geopolitics,” “Understanding Energy Interdependence,” and “Climate Change.” [DOWNLOAD COMPLETE]

[PROCEEDINGS] Recurrent problems with project performance in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the 1990s raised questions in Congress about the practices and processes used by the department to manage projects. The 105th Committee of Conference on Energy and Water Resources directed DOE to investigate establishing a project review process. DOE requested the assistance of the National Research Council (NRC), which resulted in the publication of the report Assessing the Need for Independent Project Reviews in the Department of Energy.

Congress subsequently directed DOE to undertake a review and assessment of its overall management structure and process for identifying, managing, designing, and constructing facilities, and the DOE asked the NRC to conduct an independent review and to develop recommendations to improve DOE’s management of projects. The NRC published the report Improving Project Management in the Department of Energy, which provided a set of findings and recommendations for improving project management and noted that improvement would require a program of reform for the entire project management process. These issues were followed up and expanded in the subsequent reports, Characteristics of Successful Megaprojects, Improving Project Management in the Department of Energy, and Progress in Improving Project Management at the Department of Energy: 2001 Assessment.

Many of the findings and recommendations in this series of reports identified the need for improved planning in the early project stages (front-end planning) to get the project off to the right start, and the continuous monitoring of projects by senior management to make sure the project stays on course. These reports also stressed the need for DOE to act as an owner, not a contractor, and to train its personnel to function not as traditional project managers but as knowledgeable owner’s representatives in dealing with projects and contractors. The NRC Committee for Oversight and Assessment of Department of Energy Project Management determined that it would be helpful for DOE to sponsor a forum in which representatives from DOE and from leading corporations with large, successful construction programs would discuss how the owner’s role is conducted in government and in industry. In so doing, the committee does not claim that all industrial firms are better at project management than the DOE. Far from it—the case studies represented at this forum were selected specifically because these firms were perceived by the committee to be exemplars of the very best practices in project management. Nor is it implied that reaching this level is easy; the industry speakers themselves show that excellence in project management is difficult to achieve and perhaps even more difficult to maintain. Nevertheless, they have been successful in doing so, through constant attention by senior management.

Through this forum, the committee hoped to reinforce some of the other general points made in the above-cited earlier reports. The points include the following:

1. Successful project management requires the institution of a project management discipline that encompasses all projects.  It is not sufficient to do some projects well; what is needed is consistency. All the firms represented in the forum have well-defined, disciplined project processes, with buy-in and active participation by senior management.
2. There is an absolute requirement for emphasis on project justification and identification of business or (in the case of DOE) mission need early in every project, even before a project is formalized.  Senior corporate (agency) management must be closely involved in this process, as it is their responsibility to identify and interpret business or mission needs.
3. Decision points with options for project approval, go-ahead, change, rework, or termination must be clearly identified.  These decisions must be made by appropriate senior managers.  The view that the need for senior management decisions slows down good projects is explicitly rejected.  A good decision process actually expedites projects, in that it assures that they have the necessary resources, support, and direction to go to successful completion and operation not merely to the next phase.
4. Accountability and responsibility for project performance must be made clear and well defined across the enterprise.  For the enterprise to succeed, all elements must succeed.
5. A corporate organizational structure for project management must be established and maintained.
6. There must be continual, formal project reviews by responsible management.
7. Expectations, products, and metrics must be clearly defined for the entire process.
8. There is no substitute for thorough front-end planning. This is true even (better, especially) for first-of-a-kind and one-of-a-kind projects.
9. A successful project-management improvement process requires a cultural change, and cultural change is driven from the top.
10. COMPLETE-DOWNLOAD

CONTENT

OUTLOOK ENERGI INDONESIA 2014 [OEI 2014] ini memberikan gambaran tentang kondisi Energi Nasional pada Kurun waktu 2013-2050, mencakup proyeksi kebutuhan dan penyediaan energi primer dan energi final berdasarkan ketersediaan sumberdaya energi, kondisi saat ini dan target yang diatur dalam Kebijakan Energi Nasional, perkiraan kebutuhan infrastruktur energi serta membandingkan kondisi keenergian Indonesia terhadap kondisi Energi di wilayah ASEAN dan Dunia.

Pangsa Konsumsi Energi Final Indonesia menurut jenis energi

Konsumsi Energi Sektor Transportasi

Sumber dari Buku Outlook Energi Indonesia 2014